Non-ferrous metal prices shaky
Domestic non-ferrous metal prices oscillation down. Copper 1207 main contract fell 1.23%, Shanghai, Shanghai, Shanghai aluminum zinc lead weak oscillation. Screw thread steel remain high oscillation state, substantially reduce turnover. Gold price oscillation uplink, continuous up.
Influencing factors
Customs released March China's nonferrous metal imports down, showing a slowdown in Chinese demand, to suppress the market confidence. CPI rebounded in March sent stocks fell, and the whole of the commodity market pressures. However, we believe that the overall market downward down the space is limited, the policy goal is the economy to a soft landing. Internationally, the United States by the non farm employment data, U.S. stocks and the decline of the dollar, U.S. stocks into adjustment, lower bond yields. The United States Department of labor announced in March non farm employment data were much lower than expected, the market worried about the United States of America's economic recovery momentum slowed. This week is the United States listing Corporation financial statements issued a week, if the weaker than expected earnings, will further drive the market down. European and American financial institutions to consider the resumption of trade financing business of CDO, will alleviate the Basel III and strict regulation of bank capital.
Breed Fundamentals
Copper: no optimistic about copper fundamentals, especially domestic copper stocks in season to rise. At the same time, CODELCO is expected to copper processing fees will not continue to fall. The General Administration of customs data released Tuesday showed China, unwrought copper and copper imports in March 462182 tons, fell 4.6%; 1 to March accumulative total imports 1360701 tons, the cumulative increase compared to the same period 50.5%.
Aluminum: Aluminum Inc first quarter performance is not optimistic. Alumina also encountered the same excess production and capacity utilization problem. Domestic air conditioning companies continue to increase investment in the construction, aluminum processing industry competition, expected processing fees will remain low. As the economy recovers, raw and auxiliary materials prices will gradually rise. According to customs data, China March unwrought aluminum and aluminum imports 120494 tons, 124584 tons less than last month, down 3.3% mom.
Zinc: Hu Lun bourses inventories last week decline, but still high. In China real estate regulation policy drag, China March metal production may decline. Since the beginning of non-ferrous metal smelting factory pollution incidents, many involving pollution zinc smelter was discontinued in March, zinc production may be affected. Zinc downstream consumption is weak, the peak season does not Wang, galvanized, zinc alloy and brass business orders and production conditions are in general, do not show this season characteristics.
Lead: 2012 Jiangsu will eliminate 17 lead battery capacity of backward enterprises. Waste battery prices paid to secondary lead smelting enterprises are near record highs, the waste battery prices has been in short supply boost, waste batteries for lead production the United States 90%. Because the weather is warm, lead-acid batteries, small cars and trucks with prolonging the holding time. Waste battery reduce forced regeneration lead smelting factory to pay a higher price to ensure the supply of raw materials, which makes the United States lead producers hit.
Steel: according to customs data, in March China imported 62870000 tons of iron ore, an increase of 5.7%, annulus comparing reduce 3.2%. China's steel exports in March hit a new high in two years. March imports of iron ore is decreased in February, indicates that China's steel demand is still not fully release. The Western holiday, imported ore prices remain stable, volume was light as a whole. In the demand for the release and futures prices pull up drive, spot prices rose slightly. The market of delivery is acceptable, the business mentality began to turn for the better.
Gold: India sparked strikes new taxes on bullion. In the last 20 days of the end of the strike, as demand picks up, expect gold imports will India's recovery.
Operating strategy
From a technical point of view, LME copper prices fell to the support line near 8200 USD / ton, estimation of short-term rebound, challenge resistance at 8400 dollars / ton line. Shanghai aluminum prices up space is limited, the operation oriented, pay attention to 16000 yuan / ton first-line support effectiveness. In the short term, zinc prices mainly affected by the macroeconomic uncertainty, treated with Interval Oscillation ideas, pay attention to 15300 yuan / ton support. Lead prices recent performance is weak, about 15300 yuan / ton support, treat oscillation partial empty thoughts. Short thread steel is expected to continue rising market. But because of the past few days steel continuous pull up sharply, while the downstream demand release more slowly, there are certain callback pressure, investors can buy every callback, about 4400 yuan / ton pressure. The macro is not certainty stronger, gold prices rebound Co., oscillation mindset.
